Tropical Storm TOMAS
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1500 UTC THU NOV 04 2010
CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 MPH
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 3 13 23 23
TROP DEPRESSION 4 8 5 12 27 33 31
TROPICAL STORM 90 67 52 61 49 40 40
HURRICANE 6 24 43 24 11 5 6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 21 35 19 9 4 5
HUR CAT 2 X 2 5 3 2 1 1
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 2 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 60KT 65KT 55KT 40KT 30KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 47(53) 9(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 19(19) 12(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GRAND TURK 34 X 5( 5) 35(40) 12(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 6 47(53) 9(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 11(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KINGSTON 34 27 7(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
KINGSTON 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LES CAYES 34 20 36(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
LES CAYES 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
LES CAYES 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 21(24) 11(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GONAIVES 34 3 29(32) 21(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
GONAIVES 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GONAIVES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE BEATA 34 1 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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