Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm TOMAS


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010               
1500 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       6      11
TROP DEPRESSION  2       2       2       1       3      14      20
TROPICAL STORM  85      49      38      24      23      52      49
HURRICANE       13      49      60      75      73      28      20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       11      42      46      43      33      21      16
HUR CAT 2        1       6      10      19      22       5       2
HUR CAT 3        X       1       3      10      14       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       2       4       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       1       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    65KT    70KT    80KT    90KT    65KT    60KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PT GALLINAS    34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   5(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
CURACAO        34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   5(19)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   5(26)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)  14(18)  11(29)   3(32)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)  12(20)   3(23)   1(24)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)  10(19)  20(39)   6(45)   X(45)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   X(16)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
LES CAYES      34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   6(15)  28(43)  17(60)   1(61)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  12(26)   1(27)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)  20(26)  21(47)   3(50)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   1(17)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
GONAIVES       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  14(17)  23(40)   4(44)
GONAIVES       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   2(17)
GONAIVES       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)  16(24)  15(39)   4(43)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   6(34)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   3(23)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:25 UTC