Hurricane TOMAS
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1500 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 7
TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 1 4 3 6
TROPICAL STORM 9 13 20 20 24 18 26
HURRICANE 91 86 79 79 72 76 62
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 78 59 50 42 36 28 29
HUR CAT 2 11 20 21 22 19 23 17
HUR CAT 3 2 6 7 12 13 18 13
HUR CAT 4 X 1 2 3 3 6 2
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 80KT 80KT 85KT 90KT 100KT 100KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 12(17) 8(25) 4(29)
PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
CURACAO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 2(20) 3(23)
CURACAO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 7(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 10(26)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 15(35) 7(42)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 12(36) 4(40)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GONAIVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 5(30)
GONAIVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9)
GONAIVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 32(45) 7(52) 3(55)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 2(23)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 4(24)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 15(29) 5(34) 2(36)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
PONCE 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 4(25) X(25) 2(27)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 2(18) 1(19) 1(20)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16)
SAINT CROIX 34 3 7(10) 7(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BARBUDA 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ANTIGUA 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GUADELOUPE 34 18 6(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
AVES 34 19 47(66) 3(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
AVES 50 1 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
AVES 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
DOMINICA 34 65 2(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
DOMINICA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARTINIQUE 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
MARTINIQUE 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT LUCIA 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
SAINT LUCIA 64 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT VINCENT 50 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
SAINT VINCENT 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRENADA 34 7 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORT OF SPAIN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
JUANGRIEGO 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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