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Hurricane TOMAS (Text)

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HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
0900 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
THESE WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  62.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 55NE  25SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE  45SE  45SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  62.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  62.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.4N  64.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.8N  66.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.1N  68.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  85SE  85SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N  70.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE  85SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  55SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...135NE  95SE 105SW 135NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N  74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  62.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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