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Hurricane TOMAS (Text)

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HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
800 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010

DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TOMAS HAS RE-INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED A PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT EAST OF THE
CENTER AND A MAXIMUM SFMR WIND OF 64 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-INTENSIFICATION...AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS INCREASING SHEAR AND
DRY AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING.

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TOMAS IS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13 KT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...OR NORTH...THROUGH 36
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. BEYOND 36
HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0000Z 25.0N  69.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 25.7N  69.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 26.0N  68.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 26.0N  67.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  64.9W    35 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 28.5N  59.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 31.5N  55.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
 
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