Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm SHARY


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING AND HAS EXPANDED A BIT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. 
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WITHIN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WERE 73 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...AND 60 KT
BASED ON AN SFMR WIND ESTIMATION.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SHARY IS MOVING
WITHIN A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...NOW 20-30 KT...AND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE SHEAR
ALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING
BERMUDA...AND INTERACTION WITH SHARY SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. 
THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION DIAGRAMS FOR THE GFS/UKMET/CMC
UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT SHARY WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD...050/18.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS
TRANSITION TO A NON-TROPICAL LOW.  THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF
POST-TROPICAL SHARY SHOULD BE SHORT...AS ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
ZONE IN 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UKMET...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 31.9N  63.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 34.5N  59.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 38.2N  51.7W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:23 UTC