Hurricane RICHARD
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICHARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1500 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 16 34 43 43 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 8 30 41 32 30 NA
TROPICAL STORM 12 78 32 24 23 25 NA
HURRICANE 88 14 23 1 2 2 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 62 13 18 1 2 2 NA
HUR CAT 2 21 1 3 X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 5 X 1 X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85KT 55KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
FRONTERA MX 34 2 4( 6) 21(27) 4(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
COZUMEL MX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BELIZE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BELIZE 50 80 8(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
BELIZE 64 58 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
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FORECASTER PASCH
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