Tropical Depression NINETEEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
0900 UTC THU OCT 21 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 1 1 4 11 18
TROP DEPRESSION 14 15 8 5 9 16 12
TROPICAL STORM 83 76 66 47 49 49 37
HURRICANE 2 8 26 47 38 25 33
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 7 21 33 27 17 21
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 10 8 5 9
HUR CAT 3 1 X 1 3 3 2 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 65KT 40KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 23(31) 6(37)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 5(26)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 15(22) 10(32) 2(34)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 6(17) X(17) 1(18)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 3(23)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 5(16) 2(18)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 10(30) 2(32) X(32)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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