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Tropical Depression NINETEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010               
0900 UTC THU OCT 21 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       2       1       1       4      11      18
TROP DEPRESSION 14      15       8       5       9      16      12
TROPICAL STORM  83      76      66      47      49      49      37
HURRICANE        2       8      26      47      38      25      33
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       7      21      33      27      17      21
HUR CAT 2        X       1       3      10       8       5       9
HUR CAT 3        1       X       1       3       3       2       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       1       1       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    55KT    65KT    65KT    40KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  23(31)   6(37)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   5(26)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)  15(22)  10(32)   2(34)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   6(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   3(23)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   5(16)   2(18)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   2( 3)   7(10)  10(20)  10(30)   2(32)   X(32)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:23 UTC