Tropical Depression RICHARD

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING.  HOWEVER...
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE GULF...IT
SHOULD BE A VERY WEAK CYCLONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
REINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RICHARD BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO BUT THIS EVENT COULD VERY WELL OCCUR
SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8...WHICH IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK.  BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY RICHARD OR ITS
REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IN
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 18.1N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.8N  92.3W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  93.4W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 21.2N  94.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 22.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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