Tropical Storm RICHARD

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TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT AT 925 MB...SURFACE SFMR WINDS OF 58-63
KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.  A 2259 UTC SSM/IS OVERPASS
SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND THE PLANE REPORTED A FORMATIVE
20-25 N MI EYEWALL WITH A ROUGHLY 12 N MI RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND. 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TILT OF THE VORTEX MAY BE
GRADUALLY LESSENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL WESTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING.  THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES...CALLING FOR A LESSER AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL AIR NEAR THE STORM CIRCULATION AND A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE WOULD ARGUE IN FAVOR OF THIS
TREND.  ON THE OTHER HAND...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION
WITH LAND...THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD PORTEND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IN BELIZE. IF RICHARD SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...
REGENERATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
PROHIBITIVELY HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.  THE INTENSITY
WAS INCREASED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 24 HR AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER
THAT.
 
USING RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06.  THERE
HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD STEER RICHARD ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY TOMORROW AND INLAND OVER
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.  AFTER THAT...A WEAKENING
RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS...THEN A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 16.3N  84.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N  85.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  87.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.1N  89.4W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N  90.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N  93.0W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N  94.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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