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Tropical Storm RICHARD (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION STILL LOOKING A LITTLE DESSICATED.  BANDING FEATURES
ARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THOUGH BANDS OF
RAIN ARE NOW AFFECTING HONDURAS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE EARLIER RECON DATA.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD
TO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED.  MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HONDURAS TO ALLOW
SOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...LGEM...AND
SHIPS MODELS.  THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NEW
FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MODELS.
DISSIPATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER
RICHARD ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  
 
RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/7 KT.   A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY
TOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.  RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 16.1N  84.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  85.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N  87.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.8N  88.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N  90.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  93.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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