Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RICHARD


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010
 
DESPITE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUGGESTS THAT RICHARD IS BETTER
ORGANIZED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVELS WINDS WERE ABOUT 40 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 35
KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006-1007 MB.  IN ADDITION...THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PERHAPS THE CENTER IS TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER
SOUTH.  THE INITIAL WINDS WILL STAY 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
TO STRENGTHENING.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER LIGHT AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND IS FARTHER FROM THE
CENTER THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND TO
THIS BY INTENSIFYING RICHARD INTO A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER AN AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...
THOUGH THE CATEGORY TWO SOLUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF IS NOT
UNREALISTIC.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST
BELOW...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN THE 48-HR AND
72-HR FORECASTS UP TO LANDFALL.  AFTER THAT...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAKING RESTRENGTHENING
UNLIKELY. 

A WESTWARD MOTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEGUN WITH RICHARD AS RIDGING IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
STEER THE STORM TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 15.8N  81.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N  81.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N  82.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  83.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.6N  85.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.8N  88.4W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:22 UTC