Tropical Storm RICHARD

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TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010
 
DESPITE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUGGESTS THAT RICHARD IS BETTER
ORGANIZED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVELS WINDS WERE ABOUT 40 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 35
KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006-1007 MB.  IN ADDITION...THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PERHAPS THE CENTER IS TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER
SOUTH.  THE INITIAL WINDS WILL STAY 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
TO STRENGTHENING.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER LIGHT AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND IS FARTHER FROM THE
CENTER THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND TO
THIS BY INTENSIFYING RICHARD INTO A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER AN AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...
THOUGH THE CATEGORY TWO SOLUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF IS NOT
UNREALISTIC.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST
BELOW...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN THE 48-HR AND
72-HR FORECASTS UP TO LANDFALL.  AFTER THAT...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAKING RESTRENGTHENING
UNLIKELY. 

A WESTWARD MOTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEGUN WITH RICHARD AS RIDGING IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
STEER THE STORM TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 15.8N  81.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N  81.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N  82.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  83.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.6N  85.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.8N  88.4W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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