Hurricane PAULA
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HURRICANE PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0900 UTC THU OCT 14 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 7 11 37 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 1 7 19 13 36 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 76 48 36 29 25 NA NA
HURRICANE 23 44 39 47 3 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 22 36 30 33 3 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 1 6 7 10 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X 2 2 4 X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MIAMI FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 9(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36)
MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 1 10(11) 15(26) 7(33) 7(40) X(40) X(40)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HAVANA 34 4 64(68) 10(78) 4(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
HAVANA 50 X 28(28) 11(39) 2(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42)
HAVANA 64 X 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
ISLE OF PINES 34 2 22(24) 6(30) 5(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 6( 7) 23(30) 18(48) 7(55) X(55) X(55)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 13(27) X(27) X(27)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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