Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PAULA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010               
0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       6      10      14      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       9      25      24      18      NA
TROPICAL STORM   4      45      66      58      50      51      NA
HURRICANE       96      54      24      12      16      18      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       76      45      20      11      13      14      NA
HUR CAT 2       17       7       3       1       3       3      NA
HUR CAT 3        4       1       1       X       1       1      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   80KT    70KT    60KT    50KT    35KT    30KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)  11(22)   6(28)   X(28)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   7(17)  11(28)   6(34)   X(34)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   5(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  6   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   X(10)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   X(15)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 59  32(91)   2(93)   X(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  8  51(59)   5(64)   X(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  1  31(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
HAVANA         34  2   5( 7)  27(34)  14(48)   8(56)   3(59)   X(59)
HAVANA         50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   4(17)   2(19)   X(19)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  3   4( 7)  18(25)   8(33)   7(40)   3(43)   X(43)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)  16(28)   6(34)   X(34)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)   X(17)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   6(13)   5(18)   X(18)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:21 UTC