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Tropical Storm PAULA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010               
2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       2       4      10      14      25
TROP DEPRESSION  5       3       7       9      11      13      14
TROPICAL STORM  83      53      43      45      42      46      39
HURRICANE       12      44      49      42      37      27      22
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       11      37      38      31      24      20      17
HUR CAT 2        1       5       8       7       8       5       4
HUR CAT 3        X       1       2       4       4       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       1       1       1       1       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    65KT    70KT    70KT    70KT    65KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   5(11)   8(19)   1(20)   3(23)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  1  18(19)  32(51)   9(60)   9(69)   1(70)   3(73)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   2( 2)  16(18)   8(26)   5(31)   2(33)   1(34)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
BELIZE         34  1  10(11)   8(19)   8(27)   8(35)   3(38)   2(40)
BELIZE         50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   3(16)
 
GUANAJA        34 41  16(57)   3(60)   4(64)   5(69)   1(70)   3(73)
GUANAJA        50  2   7( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   3(14)   1(15)   2(17)
GUANAJA        64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   3( 8)   5(13)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   6( 6)  14(20)  12(32)  15(47)   3(50)   6(56)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   9(16)   3(19)   3(22)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   7(12)   4(16)   7(23)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)  13(26)   6(32)   6(38)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)  10(19)   6(25)   8(33)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:21 UTC