Tropical Storm PAULA
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TROPICAL STORM PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2010
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 4 10 14 25
TROP DEPRESSION 5 3 7 9 11 13 14
TROPICAL STORM 83 53 43 45 42 46 39
HURRICANE 12 44 49 42 37 27 22
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 11 37 38 31 24 20 17
HUR CAT 2 1 5 8 7 8 5 4
HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 4 4 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X 1 1 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 70KT 70KT 70KT 65KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 8(19) 1(20) 3(23)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 2( 5)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 18(19) 32(51) 9(60) 9(69) 1(70) 3(73)
COZUMEL MX 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) 5(31) 2(33) 1(34)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
BELIZE 34 1 10(11) 8(19) 8(27) 8(35) 3(38) 2(40)
BELIZE 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16)
GUANAJA 34 41 16(57) 3(60) 4(64) 5(69) 1(70) 3(73)
GUANAJA 50 2 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 3(14) 1(15) 2(17)
GUANAJA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 5(13)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 12(32) 15(47) 3(50) 6(56)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 3(22)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 7(23)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 13(26) 6(32) 6(38)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 10(19) 6(25) 8(33)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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