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Hurricane PAULA


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
100 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...PAULA HESITATES...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 85.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST. PAULA HAS
MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL BE NEAR OR OVER
WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT PAULA MIGHT HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT CHECKED THE ENTIRE HURRICANE
YET. NEVERTHELESS...PAULA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:21 UTC