Hurricane PAULA

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...STILL PACKING 100 MPH WINDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.7N 86.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA
SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR
OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MEXICAN COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
 
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