Hurricane PAULA

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HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
  
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  85.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  85.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  85.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.3N  84.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.7N  83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 45NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N  82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N  80.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N  79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N  85.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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