Hurricane PAULA

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HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  86.0W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  45SE  30SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  86.0W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  86.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.3N  85.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N  83.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.2N  82.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.9N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N  79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N  86.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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