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Hurricane PAULA (Text)

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HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
2100 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.0W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.0W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  85.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.3N  86.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N  85.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.5N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N  79.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  86.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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