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Tropical Storm PAULA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  83.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.8N  84.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 85NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.3N  86.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...105NE  75SE  60SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.6N  86.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  75SW  95NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.0N  86.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE 105SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE 105SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N  85.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  84.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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