ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 PAULA IS A SMALLER THAN USUAL HURRICANE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN TRACKED ALL MORNING WITH BOTH WESTERN CUBA AND CANCUN RADARS. THE HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION WITH A CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION DEFINING THE EYEWALL. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE PREVIOUS WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER A LITTLE MORE THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. PAULA IS ALREADY REACHING THE AREA OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THAT PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 005 DEGREES AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR SOON...BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN HOW SHARP IT WILL BE. SOME RELIABLE MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE EAST ACROSS CUBA AND OTHERS SHOW A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST OVER OR VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR DAYS...OR EARLIER. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 21.3N 85.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 22.0N 85.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 22.6N 84.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 23.1N 83.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.5N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 17/1200Z 22.1N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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