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Hurricane PAULA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
A 1926 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE ISSUANCE 
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE...WITH
AN EXTREMELY SMALL EYE.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED WITH
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A 0047 UTC SSMIS
PASS ALSO SHOWS LESS SYMMETRY AND NO EYE FEATURE...HOWEVER THIS
INSTRUMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESOLVE THE TINY EYE.  THE LATEST
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0...
RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 85 KT. 
 
PAULA HAS VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT TO STRENGTHEN.  THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHEAR...COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT PAULA HAS TURNED
NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/8.  THE TRACK REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN PAULA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN
EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.  THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST PAULA MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
CYCLONE WILL GET.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM
ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE
GFS WHICH WEAKENS THE HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MEANDERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. 
THE UPDATED FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER 36 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE COMPLEX SITUATION...LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
LESS CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 19.9N  86.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 20.9N  86.1W    85 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 21.8N  85.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 22.1N  84.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:21 UTC