Hurricane OTTO

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HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OTTO IS STEADILY INCREASING IN
ORGANIZATION.  THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED AND LARGE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH A CURVED
BAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ATTACHED TO THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
MASS.  A 1059 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MID-LEVEL EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE A
BIT TO THE WEST OF THAT FEATURE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND OTTO IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED UPON THESE
DATA AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASS.  THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES THAT OTTO SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND OVER MARGINALLY WARM
WATERS...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER THAT...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS OTTO
ENCOUNTERS A RAPID INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.
 
OTTO HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE LATEST
FIXES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/15.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OTTO SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER ON A
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...EMBEDDED
IN A SWIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
COVERING THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS...OTTO IS
EXPECTED TO SEPARATE FROM THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TURN EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND WESTERN EUROPE.  ALTHOUGH THIS
SOLUTION IS GENERALLY FAVORED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THERE REMAINS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE EXPECTED TURN
TOWARD THE EAST SHOULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE
LEFT BEYOND THAT TIME...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.
 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS ONCE
OTTO BECOMES MORE DEEPLY INVOLVED WITH THE FAST-PACED...MID-
LATITUDE FLOW TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COMPLETION OF THIS PROCESS AS OTTO IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 25.9N  64.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 27.3N  61.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 29.7N  57.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 32.4N  51.9W    70 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 35.5N  45.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 40.0N  31.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 40.0N  24.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     13/1200Z 37.0N  22.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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