Tropical Depression SIXTEEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
0300 UTC WED SEP 29 2010
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 4 5 8 13 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 53 37 31 35 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 41 55 56 47 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 1 3 6 5 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 5 4 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 35KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ORLANDO FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PATRICK AFB 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
PATRICK AFB 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 11(11) 16(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 19(19) 11(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
W PALM BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MIAMI FL 34 X 29(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
MIAMI FL 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MIAMI FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MARATHON FL 34 4 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MARATHON FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 13(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HAVANA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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