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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN                                         
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010               
1800 UTC THU SEP 23 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       3       4       7      19      24      25
TROP DEPRESSION 34      22      17      20      17       4       6
TROPICAL STORM  63      70      64      49      38      31      37
HURRICANE        2       5      15      24      26      42      33
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       4      13      19      17      28      22
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       4       6       9       8
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       2       4       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    50KT    60KT    70KT    70KT    70KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)  10(22)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   9(21)  12(33)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)  11(40)   7(47)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   4(20)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   9(25)   5(30)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)  23(48)   4(52)   3(55)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   4(26)   1(27)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   8(20)   2(22)   2(24)   2(26)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   9(18)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   4(12)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
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