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Tropical Depression MATTHEW


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE WHILE WEAKENING.
THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE A TIGHT INNER CORE AND WE ARE BASICALLY
TRACKING AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE WITH NUMEROUS
RAINBANDS FROM THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS
AND GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
 
MATTHEW HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN YET...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE SOON AND MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MEANDERING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF MATTHEW...
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 17.4N  89.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  91.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N  91.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N  91.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N  90.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:20 UTC