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Tropical Storm MATTHEW


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010
 
THE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE AREA OF STRONGEST 
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN HONDURAS. MATTHEW IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AS INDICATED BY THE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REPORTED BY THE BELIZE RAOB
THIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT MOST OF
THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.
 
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT MATTHEW IS SLOWING DOWN YET. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE
ENTIRE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MANY OF THE TRACK
MODELS KEEP MATTHEW OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO WHERE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW DISSIPATING OR BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW.
 
WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY
RAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE
TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 16.2N  87.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N  91.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:20 UTC