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Tropical Depression LISA (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
 
A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF LISA.  THIS CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS
LOCATED OVER 100 N MI FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN FACT...DEEP
CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN WITHIN 100 N MI OF THE CENTER FOR ABOUT THE
LAST 11 HOURS.  THEREFORE...LISA NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30 KT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS...COUPLED WITH A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN SHOULD PREVENT
REGENERATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/6.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 26.1N  29.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.8N  30.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.9N  31.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 29.1N  31.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 30.2N  31.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 31.4N  31.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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