Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm LISA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010
 
LISA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
CENTER...BUT MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AROUND
THE CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0/45
KT AND 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  A FEW MICROWAVE PASSES...PARTICULARLY A
0919 UTC SSMIS PASS...INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF LISA HAS DRIFTED
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 125 DEGREES AT 3 KT.  LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS TRAPPED IN A
MID-LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER AFRICA...A
RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A SHARP TROUGH TO
THE NORTH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS.  AFTER 48
HOURS...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EUROPE
AND THE AFRICAN RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD...NUDGING LISA A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED WITHIN THE COL...THE SHEAR
DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...
THERE IS A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND LISA...AND THAT COULD BE
WHAT IS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT INCREASING SHEAR AFTER THAT TIME SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  THERE IS GREATER SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER
48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH HAS AGAIN BEEN
LOWERED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 17.1N  30.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.1N  30.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N  30.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N  30.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  31.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N  33.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N  35.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  38.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:19 UTC