ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY... AND THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LISA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 27 C. WESTERLY SHEAR... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR...SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. LISA APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/2. THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE BASE OF A LARGE AND AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. A SLOW AND LIKELY ERRATIC NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF LISA. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 18.2N 31.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 18.3N 31.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 31.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 18.7N 31.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 19.1N 32.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 19.7N 33.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 35.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 21.0N 38.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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