Tropical Storm KARL

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TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
 
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.7N 92.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND BE NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...
AND KARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 987
MB...29.15 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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