Tropical Storm KARL

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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
 
DESPITE KARL BEING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THERE IS A RING OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR AREA WHICH RESEMBLES AN
EYE FEATURE...PROBABLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL
VIGOROUS AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO RAINBANDS MAINLY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE OUTSTANDING STRUCTURE ON
SATELLITE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH
PREVAILS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER
WATER. KARL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING KARL.
 
KARL APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 13 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KARL ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
FORECAST KEEPS KARL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BRINGS KARL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING KARL ANCHORED IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES NORTH.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 19.4N  90.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N  92.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N  93.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  97.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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