Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane IGOR


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IGOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  54                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       3      17      25      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       3      18      32      27      NA
TROPICAL STORM  27      39      52      62      43      41      NA
HURRICANE       73      60      44      16       8       8      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       67      50      36      13       7       7      NA
HUR CAT 2        6       9       6       3       1       1      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       2       2       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    70KT    65KT    50KT    40KT    40KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 50   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 67   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PTX BASQUES    34 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
NNNN