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Hurricane IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 PM AST TUE SEP 21 2010
 
LAND AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS
INDICATE THAT IGOR HAS BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE.
JUST AFTER THE CENTER OF IGOR PASSED OVER CANADIAN BUOY 44251 NEAR
CAPE RACE EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED BY ABOUT 10
DEGREES F.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING HURRICANE-
FORCE WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 KT AT BONAVISTA NEWFOUNDLAND.  IGOR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE DAVIS STRAITS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 DEGREES AT 34 KT.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING IGOR TURNING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE WEST OF GREENLAND IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NORTHERN QUEBEC.  THE MODELS DO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS...
HOWEVER...ON WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
ONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...WILL KEEP IGOR AS A
DISTINCT CYCLONE THROUGH 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES
VERY LITTLE MOTION FROM 72 TO 96 HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
NORTH OF THE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES BY THEN.

THE 12-FT SEAS RADII PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER ARE 480
NE...900 SE...1320 SW...AND 380 NW.  RADII IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
ARE LIMITED TO 995 N MI...BUT 12-FT SEAS ARE ACTUALLY OCCURRING AT
A GREATER DISTANCE THAN THAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 49.3N  51.7W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 53.0N  49.8W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 57.2N  51.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 61.6N  57.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 62.5N  60.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 62.0N  60.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 61.5N  59.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC