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Hurricane IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
1100 PM AST MON SEP 20 2010

IGOR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL SOME ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  MOREOVER...SHORT-TERM GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET REACHED THE CENTER.  IGOR IS THEREFORE NOT
COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT IS...HOWEVER...EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ON TUESDAY.  SOME BAROCLINICALLY INDUCED
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES PAST THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER HIGH LATITUDES.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT FASTER 045/25.  IGOR...OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED AROUND A LARGE
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

EVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES
NEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.  ENVIRONMENT CANADA
IS THEREFORE MAINTAINING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN
PART OF THAT PROVINCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 39.9N  59.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 43.2N  55.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 48.9N  49.4W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 54.8N  47.9W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 59.0N  52.7W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 63.5N  59.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 68.5N  62.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC