Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010
 
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF IGOR
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED
THE HURRICANE THIS MORNING.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 75 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  DRIFTING BUOY 44903...RECENTLY REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 951 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE THAT WAS REPORTED EARLIER BY THE
AIRCRAFT. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
THE HURRICANE AROUND 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON.

IGOR HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/12.  THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS
AND LIES JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 2-3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  AT THE LONGER
RANGE...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE THE CONSENSUS AND 
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.

IGOR WILL REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA...AND 
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST WHILE IGOR REMAINS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN 
ABOUT A DAY AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  AFTER 72
HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE
OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE ALREADY REPORTED.  THE 34-KT WIND RADII WAS
EXPENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA 
BUOY 41048.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 30.4N  65.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 32.3N  65.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 35.4N  63.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 39.3N  60.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 43.5N  55.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 50.5N  45.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 54.5N  40.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     24/1200Z 59.0N  39.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC