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Hurricane IGOR (Text)

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HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...AND
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY AND T-NUMBERS.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  AS STATED
EARLIER...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE EVOLUTION ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE AT LEAST SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH DAY 3 AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
LGEM MODEL AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

SATELLITE FIXES OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF IGOR INDICATE THAT THE
MUCH-AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ON THIS PACKAGE.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH JUST
EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THIS FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE RESULTING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACK...WHICH IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE 5-DAY POINT...SINCE
TRACK ERRORS COULD EASILY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES AT THAT FORECAST
INTERVAL.  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER IGOR
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 17.9N  51.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.4N  52.8W   115 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.4N  54.2W   115 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N  55.7W   120 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.7N  57.1W   120 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.4N  60.2W   115 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 27.5N  63.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 31.5N  64.5W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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