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Tropical Storm IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGOR AROUND 1030
UTC...AND HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION
REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR
...AS SHOWN BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0000 UTC ONLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT...THE WINDS ARE
ASSUMED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...IGOR WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE
EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...COMBINED
WITH WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
MODELS BRING IGOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND SHOW
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
 
IGOR HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE 6-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5.
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NOW THAT IGOR APPEARS TO HAVE ABSORBED THE
WEAK LOW THAT HAD BEEN IN ITS VICINITY...A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR NEARING A
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH IN THE SHORT-TERM
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 14.7N  24.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 15.0N  26.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 15.8N  29.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 16.4N  32.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 16.7N  35.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 17.3N  40.4W    70 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 18.5N  44.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N  48.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC