Tropical Depression FIONA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

FIONA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND AN ELONGATED AND
POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT HAD RISEN
TO 1013 MB.  ALSO...ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM LACKS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  IN FACT...ALL THAT
REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION IS A VERY SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN
48 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-30 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS
INDICATED BY THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT.  DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT DO
NOT ALREADY SHOW FIONA AS AN OPEN WAVE ALSO SUPPORT SUPPORT
DISSIPATION WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND PASS JUST TO THE
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION...AS A
SHALLOW LOW...IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE
DISSIPATION.

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FIONA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 31.4N  64.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  64.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 35.2N  62.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 38.2N  60.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
 
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