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Hurricane EARL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       1       4
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       X       1       8
TROPICAL STORM   1       1       1       1       5      13      40
HURRICANE       99      99      99      99      95      85      48
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       21      14       8      11      18      30      30
HUR CAT 2       60      36      21      20      24      25      12
HUR CAT 3       16      40      48      40      33      22       5
HUR CAT 4        1       7      19      23      16       6       1
HUR CAT 5        1       1       3       5       4       1       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   90KT   100KT   110KT   115KT   115KT   105KT    90KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   7(20)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   3(17)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PONCE          34  1   5( 6)   8(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  2   8(10)  21(31)   4(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
SAN JUAN       50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  4  34(38)  20(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   6( 6)  10(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  4  24(28)  10(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 50  44(94)   1(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  3  60(63)   3(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  1  39(40)   3(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 52  27(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  3  18(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARBUDA        34 95   4(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARBUDA        50 56  21(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
BARBUDA        64 25  26(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
ANTIGUA        34 85   5(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
ANTIGUA        50 17  12(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
ANTIGUA        64  4   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 42   3(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
GUADELOUPE     50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
DOMINICA       34  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:10 UTC