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Hurricane EARL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010               
1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       X       3
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       X       1       5
TROPICAL STORM   8       4       3       4       6       9      29
HURRICANE       92      96      97      96      94      90      63
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       76      33      17      18      21      23      32
HUR CAT 2       13      41      33      29      25      26      16
HUR CAT 3        2      19      37      34      30      28      12
HUR CAT 4        X       3       9      13      14      12       2
HUR CAT 5        X       1       2       2       3       2       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   75KT    90KT   100KT   105KT   110KT   110KT   100KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
DOVER DE       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   1(17)   X(17)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PONCE          34  X   5( 5)   8(13)   7(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   6( 6)  21(27)  11(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  2  15(17)  35(52)   5(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   3( 3)  17(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  2  13(15)  23(38)   4(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  6  77(83)   7(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  1  52(53)  13(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X  27(27)  14(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  7  58(65)   4(69)   2(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  1  21(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BARBUDA        34 53  42(95)   X(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
BARBUDA        50  5  65(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
BARBUDA        64  1  43(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
ANTIGUA        34 34  42(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
ANTIGUA        50  2  27(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
ANTIGUA        64  X  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 11  21(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
GUADELOUPE     50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
DOMINICA       34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBADOS       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:10 UTC