Tropical Storm EARL

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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF EARL OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED IN
A LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  EARL APPEARS TO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE DANIELLE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  

THE SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING SOON AS DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING
AWAY...AND EARL SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS
...AND REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 TO 96 HOURS.  THE NHC 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
ICON CONSENSUS. 

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY
OVERNIGHT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16 IS LARGELY
BASED ON CONTINUITY.  EARL WILL SOON REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A
BREAK DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 65 TO 70W AS THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH DANIELLE LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING EARL
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS WEAKNESS IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS
FASTER LATE IN THE PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.  

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 16.9N  56.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N  59.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 17.9N  61.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 18.7N  63.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 19.9N  65.4W    90 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  72.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W   105 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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