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Tropical Storm EARL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AND VIGOROUS AND THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED
FROM SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF LARGER
HURRICANE DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN
EARLIER TODAY...T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. 
THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOON AS DANIELLE
MOVES NORTHWARD AND...IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BY
SUNDAY.  THIS FLOW PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARM OCEAN ALONG
THE TRACK...WOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION. EARL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER.
 
EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 16 OR 17
KNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...EARL WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND 48
HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN STILL FAVORS A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT A DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO
THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
 
A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION WILL PROBABLY CHECK THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY WHILE A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET SAMPLES THE ENVIRONMENT.
THE FIRST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INTO EARL IS SCHEDULED
FOR EARLY SUNDAY.
 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 16.0N  51.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.1N  54.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 17.8N  60.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.7N  62.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 21.5N  66.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 25.0N  69.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  71.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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