Tropical Storm EARL

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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010
 
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EARL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THAN BEFORE.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER THEREAFTER TO 
BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/14.  EARL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...
THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  FOR NOW...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE USUALLY
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS.
        
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 14.7N  33.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N  35.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.5N  39.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N  42.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N  45.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 17.4N  51.3W    75 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N  56.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     31/0000Z 21.5N  60.5W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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