Hurricane DANIELLE

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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
 
DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...WITH INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS.  BASED ON THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CURRENT ADT
VALUES AROUND 6.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT.  LOW
SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SHOW A PEAK AT 120 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AROUND 36 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING BY DAYS 3 AND 4.  BY DAY 5...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AFTER 72
HOURS...DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS.  AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE NEW FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 26.5N  58.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  60.0W   115 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 28.9N  60.9W   120 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 30.6N  60.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 32.9N  59.2W   105 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 37.5N  54.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     31/0600Z 40.0N  47.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 41.5N  31.5W    65 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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