Hurricane DANIELLE

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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010
 
RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS
CONTRACTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN EYEWALL
CONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 0000Z WERE 90...90...
AND 102 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. ALTHOUGH THE
EYEWALL CONTRACTION IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM...IT IS PREFERABLE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL CONSERVATIVELY REMAIN 95 KT.
DANIELLE HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS LEFT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH
LIGHT-TO- MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM WATER. AFTER THAT TIME...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE SHIPS MODEL.  

DANIELLE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 315/10.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. 
THEREAFTER... THIS RIDGE ERODES AWAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT
THAT DANIELLE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THAT TROUGH AND RECURVED OUT TO
SEA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...THEN IS MUCH FASTER BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO NOW BECOMING VERY
LIKELY.  THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 25.8N  57.6W    95 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.7N  59.0W   100 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.1N  60.4W   105 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 29.6N  60.9W   105 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 31.4N  60.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 35.5N  56.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 38.5N  50.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  42.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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