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Tropical Depression FIVE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM...
NEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE LATEST
GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. 
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/4.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THEREAFTER...A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 26.2N  84.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 27.3N  85.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 28.4N  87.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 29.2N  89.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 29.7N  90.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 33.5N  89.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:05 UTC