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Tropical Storm COLIN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       1       3       4       6       7       7
TROP DEPRESSION 12      13      17      18      21      21      19
TROPICAL STORM  85      76      68      62      55      53      51
HURRICANE        2       9      12      16      18      19      24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       8       9      13      14      15      18
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       2       3       3       3
HUR CAT 3        1       1       1       1       1       1       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:05 UTC