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Tropical Depression THREE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010               
2100 UTC THU JUL 22 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       2       4       6      13      34      51
TROP DEPRESSION 39      19      18      21      27      36      34
TROPICAL STORM  58      71      67      59      48      28      14
HURRICANE        2       8      10      15      12       2       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       7       8      12       9       2       1
HUR CAT 2        X       1       1       2       2       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   9( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1  25(26)   8(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MIAMI FL       50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X  37(37)  18(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
MARATHON FL    50  X   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
MARATHON FL    64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X  19(19)  27(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X  12(12)  30(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   6( 6)  23(29)   1(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   3( 3)  20(23)   3(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   1(18)   1(19)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  18(31)   1(32)   X(32)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   2(20)   1(21)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   4(26)   1(27)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   5(28)   1(29)
STENNIS SC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
STENNIS SC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   5(38)   X(38)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  30(38)   3(41)   X(41)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 287N 884W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  30(39)   2(41)   X(41)
GFMX 287N 884W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   X(12)
GFMX 287N 884W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)   1(17)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   7(32)   1(33)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   4(29)   1(30)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  11(29)   1(30)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  12(29)   2(31)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   6(18)   1(19)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   2(18)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  1   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  8  10(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ANDROS         34 24  20(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
ANDROS         50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
HAVANA         34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:04 UTC